At the end of 2023, paper and cardboard production in Italy reached around 7.5 million tonnes, despite a 27% drop in revenue. However, the industry's outlook for the first quarter of 2024 indicates a slight general improvement compared to the previous two quarters. The persistent weakness in demand for paper and cardboard remains the basis for the reduction in production volumes (-14% compared to 2022).

At the level of individual segments, the reduced production of paper and cardboard for packaging (-10.2%) is noteworthy, having remained just below pre-pandemic levels. The reduction in volumes of paper for hygiene and sanitary use (-2.3%) was more contained compared to the substantially stable figures of 2022 (+0.3% compared to 2021).  Significant reductions were seen in graphic paper (-34.3%) and other specialities (-19.6%), production sectors with volumes registering well below pre-pandemic levels. However, the average consumption rate of this raw material stood at 67% (62% in 2022), despite the negative dynamics of paper and cardboard for packaging and the lower consumption of recyclable paper (-7%).  The recycling rate for paper in the specific packaging sector remains at 85%.

Even after the significant declines noted in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the December survey on expectations for the first quarter of 2024 shows that the business owners expecting positive results this year still outnumber those anticipating negative outcomes.  On the demand and internal orders side, pessimists make up 19.4% of the sample (30.6% and 22.6% at the end of September and June) compared to 16.7% of optimists.  The outlook for production is clearer, with a 27.8% increase expected from respondents (up from 5.6% and 3.2% in the previous two surveys), while those expecting a decrease are at a more limited 8.3% (compared to 25% and 19.4% in the September and June surveys).

A moderately positive balance is also noted for revenue, where improvement expectations are shared by 22.2% of the sample (5.6% in the survey at the end of September and 3.2% in the survey at the end of June) against 19.4% expecting declines (35.5% and 41.7% in previous surveys), despite sharp increases in raw material costs, both virgin and recycled. In particular, for short fibres, prices in dollars rose by 68% in January 2024, while for long fibres, they increased by 61% compared to their pre-price increase levels.

While the cost of gas remains stable but is still higher than competitors, especially outside the EU, CO₂ prices, increasingly subject to financial speculation, stood at €61/tonne in February 2024 (compared to €54 in 2021 and €25 in the 2019-2020 period).

The situation remains critical for foreign demand.  Concerns among paper mills focus on the complex national and European macroeconomic framework and inflation levels, which, although slowing down, continue to depress the purchasing power of paper mill customers, whose liquidity is affected by the high cost of credit for businesses.

Risks related to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent crisis in the Red Sea affecting transportation costs and times, could lead to increases in energy raw material prices, which are currently decreasing, with serious consequences for an energy-intensive sector like paper and the already compromised competitiveness of its products.